[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 26 09:53:04 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels today.
Solar wind speed continued to remain around 480 km/s until
1200UT today and then gradually declined to 400 km/s by the
time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations
until around 0900UT today and then remained slightly positive
during the rest of the UTday. The effect of a recurrent
coronal hole may start to strengthen the solar wind stream
late on 27 October. Solar activity is expected to remain very
low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Darwin 4 22211111
Learmonth 4 22111201
Culgoora 5 222102--
Camden 3 12210111
Canberra 3 12210101
Hobart 3 12211101
Casey(Ant) 6 3--21211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 6 Quiet
27 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled
28 Oct 20 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last
24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase over
the next 48 hours as a recurring coronal hole region moves
into a geo-effective position. Geomagnetic activity may rise
to active to minor storm levels on 28 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Fair-normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs continued to show pre-dawn depressions at
low latitudes between. Similar depressions at low latitudes
may be possible for the next few days. An expected rise in
the geomagnetic activity levels late on 27 October and on 28
October may result in a depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
27 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
28 Oct -7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: The pre-dawn depressions in MUFs, that are being
observed for the last few days, are expected to continue
for the next few days. HF conditions may show further
degradations from the second half of 27 October due an
expected rise in geomagnetic activity level that is expected
to start around this time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 67000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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