[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Conditions expected to remain unchanged while there are no active 
sunspots currently on disk. Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT over 
the UT day. Solar wind velocity declined from 430km/s at 0000UT 
to be 370km/s at 2120UT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12121111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Learmonth            2   12012100
      Culgoora             9   23321232
      Camden               2   11111001
      Canberra             2   01121001
      Hobart               2   11121000
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-322211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3221 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     6    Quiet 
19 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours as solar wind parameters continue to decline. Mostly 
quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days. An equatorial 
positioned coronal hole is expected to be in geoeffective position 
within the next 48 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Periods of depressed HF conditions observed over all 
latitudes during the last 24 hours. Improving conditions are 
expected for all latitudes over the next 2 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
19 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
20 Oct     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed for all regions in the 
last 24 hours. Improving conditions are expected over the next 
2 days for Northern Aus/Equatorial and Southern Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    63300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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