[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              72/8

COMMENT: The solar wind is stable over the last 24 hours at 400 
km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) 
is mainly neutral at +/- 2nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12210011
      Darwin               3   12110012
      Learmonth            3   22110011
      Culgoora             5   12211122
      Camden               1   ---10011
      Canberra             2   12200011
      Hobart               2   12200011
      Casey(Ant)           8   23321122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3002 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct     6    Quiet 
11 Oct     5    Quiet 
12 Oct     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal over the last 
24 hours. Isolated cases of strong sporadic E were observed in 
the low latitudes in the night-time hours. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Oct     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct     8    near predicted monthly values 
11 Oct    10    near predicted monthly values 
12 Oct    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: High and mid latitude night communications may be degraded 
due to spread F. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
No data available at this time.
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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