[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 07 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12102423
      Darwin               9   22102423
      Learmonth           10   21002523
      Culgoora             7   11112422
      Camden               6   12112322
      Canberra             5   11002322
      Hobart               6   11102323
      Casey(Ant)          11   23312333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0021 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct     7    Quiet 
09 Oct     6    Quiet 
10 Oct     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Oct    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    9.0 p/cc  Temp:    25600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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