[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Oct             05 Oct             06 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity from visible sunspot regions is expected 
to be very low. The solar wind has continued to decline over 
the last 24 hours and is currently around 400 km/s. Expect wind 
speed to remain low over the next several days. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been mainly neutral 
at +/- 2 nT. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21222111
      Darwin               5   21212211
      Learmonth            6   12123112
      Culgoora             5   21222121
      Camden               4   21121111
      Canberra             4   11122111
      Hobart               4   11222111
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2222 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Oct     6    Quiet 
05 Oct     5    Quiet 
06 Oct     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: With the solar wind speed returning to normal levels 
the geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the next 
several days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal at all latitudes 
throughout the Australasian region. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Oct     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Oct     5    near predicted monthly values 
05 Oct     6    near predicted monthly values 
06 Oct    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions in all Australasian regions 
over the next several days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    91100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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