[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22222432
      Darwin              10   22222432
      Townsville          11   22223432
      Learmonth           18   23332543
      Culgoora             8   22212332
      Camden               9   22222332
      Canberra            11   22323332
      Hobart              10   22322332
      Casey(Ant)          17   4--33333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             21   3553 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov    17    active 
27 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Nov     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1509UT on 25 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Nov    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Nov     5    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
28 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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