[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 6 10:51:42 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar region 921 produced two C-class flares during
the past 24 hours and has the chance of producing further C-class
flare activity. A type II sweep was observed at 1730UT on 5 November
and appears to be assoicated with a disappearing solar filament.
Lack of LASCO imagery at this time makes it difficult to determine
if a geoeffective CME was also associated with the disappearing
filament. Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 24
hours down to below 400 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22322211
Darwin 5 21222211
Learmonth 6 21222311
Culgoora 10 23322223
Camden 5 11222211
Canberra 7 11332211
Hobart 6 12322201
Casey(Ant) 11 2-432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1221 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 6 Quiet
07 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
for the next three days. There is the chance of increased activity
levels late on day two and into day three of the forecast period
due to a possible CME (to be confirmed) associated with a disappearing
solar filament.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Continuing HF variability was observed at low-mid latitudes
during the past 24 hours, with depressions of 10-20% observed
at times. Continuing variability at all latitudes is expected
again for 5 November, with depressions of 5-10% likely at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric variability observed for all
regions with mild depressions observed at times. Variable ionospheric
conditions are expected to continue for all regions, with the
chance of slightly depressed intervals at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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