[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 May             01 Jun             02 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective 
about 1 April. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11123222
      Darwin               6   11123222
      Learmonth            5   01023221
      Culgoora             4   01122221
      Camden               7   22122223
      Canberra             5   01023221
      Hobart               3   00022121
      Casey(Ant)           8   22223222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May : 
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1100 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 May    10    Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active period possible 
                later. 
01 Jun    20    Mostly unsettled with active periods. Isolated 
                minor storm periods possible at high latitudes. 
02 Jun    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late today 
due to a recurrent coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
01 Jun      Fair           Fair           Poor-fair     
02 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair     

COMMENT: Spread F likely to degrade night time communications. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 May    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Near predicted monthly values with enhancements 30% and
   more from 09 to 20 UT at most stations. Spread F was
   observed at most stations during night hours.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 May    20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
01 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible, mostly at high latitudes, 
on 1 June. Spread F likely to degrade night time communications 
at all latitudes over the three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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