[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 24 09:41:15 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with only a few minor
B-class events from regions 884 and 885. Activity is expected
to remain at very low levels but with the chance of a possible
C-class event over the next few days. Regions 884 and 885 did
not undergo any major change in sunspot size over the last 24
hours and remain magnetically simple. Bz, the north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-4 nT over
the UT day. Solar wind velocity steadily decreased from 500km/s
at 0000UT to be 420km/s at the time of this report.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 4 22111111
Learmonth 2 21111000
Culgoora 2 21110101
Camden 7 22122232
Canberra 2 21101001
Hobart 2 21101001
Casey(Ant) 9 23322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2201 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 7 Quiet
25 May 7 Quiet
26 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours as solar wind paramters decreased. Mostly Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 2 days with possible Unsettled
periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
25 May Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low latitudes
with isolated disturbed periods. Good conditions seen for mid
latitudes while high latitudes experienced predominently disturbed
conditions over the last 24 hours. Improving conditions are expected
for the next 2 days, with further isolated periods of disturbed
ionospheric conditions for low and high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 25 near predicted monthly values
25 May 25 near predicted monthly values
26 May 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Northern Aus/Equatorial regions
experienced some disturbed periods during local day and evening,
with mostly normal conditions for the rest of the UT day. Disturbed
ionospheric conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Mostly
normal HF conditions are expected for all regions over the next
2 days, with further disturbed ionospheric conditions for Antarctic
regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list