[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low, 
with only minor B-class activity, originating most likely from 
an emerging flux region on the east limb. Solar wind velocity 
has risen slightly from 380km/s to be 420km/s at the time of this 
report. Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated between +/-10nT during the first half of the 
UT day, after which this range has fallen to +/-5nT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32101312
      Darwin               6   32101312
      Learmonth            9   31------
      Culgoora             5   22001312
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             6   32101312
      Hobart               5   22101312
      Casey(Ant)          10   33312213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1101 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Mar     6    Quiet 
30 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet with possible Unsettled periods 
for 28March, with Quiet conditions expected for 29March onwards. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes 
during the last 24 hours with some depressed periods for mid 
latitudes and disturbed ionospheric conditions for high latitudes. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days, with possible 
high latitude disturbances. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values 
29 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values 
30 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Local daytime depressions observed for Northern Aus 
as well as Southern Aus/NZ regions. Variable disturbed periods 
for Antartic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
for the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:    35900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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