[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 1 10:28:09 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity continues to be very low. No flaring 
was observed. A disappearing filament occurred between 0021 and 
1505UT. Solar wind speed slowly increased from 320 km/sec to 
slightly above average 400 km/sec which may indicate onset of 
recurrent coronal hole activity which could slightly elevate 
geomagnetic activity. IMF Bz was northward or near zero until 
07UT, southward from 07-10UT merging with the geomagnetic field, 
and northwards 10-22UT with occasional southward excursions. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11221112
      Darwin               5   -2122112
      Learmonth            3   11121111
      Culgoora             4   11121112
      Camden               4   11221111
      Canberra             5   11131112
      Hobart               4   11231101
      Casey(Ant)           7   2-331112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1120 1002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar     3    Quiet 
02 Mar     3    Quiet 
03 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from average 320 km/sec to 
slightly above average 400 km/sec, possibly suggesting recurrent 
coronal hole activity, but the geomagnetic field does not appear 
to be significantly affected yet. IMF Bz southwards 07-10UT slightly 
raised polar activity. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions should be normal for the next 
three days in the absence of significant geomagnetic activity, 
apart from localised sporadic E. If the solar wind speed continues 
to increase significantly from the possible recurrent coronal 
hole then geomagnetic activity will increase and ionspheric conditions 
may be slightly depressed. The coronal hole doesn't appear to 
be large so this effect should not be dramatic. Flare activity 
is very low so there is a very low probability of fadeouts. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Feb    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night. Vanimo showed
      heavy absorption. Pt Moresby showed sporadic E at
      dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Slightly above predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Local
      varation with Casey, Scott Base and Macquarie Is
      showing slight enhancements, Davis showing slight
      depression.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar    25    ÿon.forecast 
02 Mar    20    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Mar    18    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Conditions enhanced at low latitudes and slightly enhanced 
at mid latitudes. High atitudes returned to normal after convection. 
Overall conditions expected to be average apart from local sporadic 
E and spread F. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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