[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110101
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Learmonth            1   11110100
      Culgoora             1   11010001
      Camden               5   22112122
      Canberra             2   11020001
      Hobart               2   11120000
      Casey(Ant)           4   22121111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1001 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Jun    22    active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jun    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 300 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    19700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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