[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 19 09:51:44 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next three
days. SOHO ACE shows the solar wind at 520 km/s. Expect it to
steadily decrease to 400 km/S over the next few days. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field maintained a southward
orientation up to -6 nT between 02UT and 08UT yesterday and had
minor effects on the geomagnetic field as well as the ionosphere
at high latitudes. SOHO LASCO images showed two backside CMEs.
One on the on the northeast limb beginning at 1118UT and the
other on the southwest limb beginning at 0242UT (possibly 10892).
No earthward effects expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 12331111
Darwin 5 12231101
Learmonth 5 12331000
Culgoora 5 11331010
Camden 10 22332223
Canberra 6 11341000
Hobart 6 11341000
Casey(Ant) 10 23332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2342 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 6 Quiet
20 Jun 6 Quiet
21 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Noted a short period of geomagnetic activity reaching
active levels at high latitudes in the earily evening hours due
to a southward orientation of the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field. Expect the geomagnetic activity to be to quiet
over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: High latitudes had periods of poor HF conditions during
the early evening hours due to geomagentic activity yesterday.
Expect normal HF conditions for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly vaules during local day,
degraded periods noted during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 20 near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 18 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 16 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted poor HF conditions during the local night in the
southern most regions of Aus/NZ due to geomagnetic activity.
HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the Aus/NZ regions
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 585 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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