[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 15 09:41:49 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very  low  today  as well. 
Region  892(S07W71) produced two  low  B-class  flares. The 
solar  wind  speed  remained  around  360 km/s until 0500UT 
and  then  gradually  increased  to  approximately 540 km/s 
by the time of this report (around 2300UT). The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained 
close  to  the  normal  value  until  around 1700UT and then 
showed minor to  moderate  fluctuations on both sides of the 
normal value during the rest of the day. Thus the anticipated 
effect of the  small  coronal  hole seems to have started to 
eventuate. The  effect of  this coronal hole may continue to 
strengthen the solar wind stream on 15 and possibly on 16 June. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 
the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21212223
      Darwin               6   21121223
      Learmonth            6   21122123
      Culgoora             7   1-311123
      Camden               8   32212232
      Canberra             4   10111123
      Hobart               4   10112113
      Casey(Ant)           8   22222322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible. 
16 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Jun     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days with the 
possibility of active periods on 15 and possibly 16 June 
due to the effect of a small coronal hole. The activity is 
expected to decline to quiet levels thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most locations for the next three days with the possibility 
of minor and occassionaly moderate degradations at high 
latitudes on 15 June and possibly 16 June due to an 
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Jun    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted montly values with periods of 
      degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun    14    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jun    14    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jun    16    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days 
with some possibility of minor depressions in the Southern 
Aus/NZ regions, especially on 15 and 16 June. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    37400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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