[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 13 09:33:15 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well. 
Region 892(S07W41) showed some decay during the last 24 
hours. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 420 
to 380 km/s during the UT day today as the coronal hole 
effect further weakened. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the 
normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity is 
expected to remain at very low levels for the next three 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112211
      Darwin               3   21111201
      Learmonth            2   10111200
      Culgoora             2   10101201
      Camden               7   22112322
      Canberra             2   10002201
      Hobart               2   10012200
      Casey(Ant)           8   32222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2121 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     5    Quiet 
14 Jun     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
15 Jun    10    Mostly quiet, unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at quiet levels for the next three days with some possibility 
of unsettled periods on 14 and 15 June due to the possible 
effect of a small coronal hole that is expected to take a 
geoeffective position late some time on 14 or 15 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most locations for the next three days with the possibility 
of minor and occassionaly moderate degradations at high 
latitudes on 14 and 15 June due to an anticipated rise in 
geomagnetic activity on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Jun    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of
      degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    17    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun    14    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days 
with some possibility of minor depressions on 14 and 15 June 
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    66000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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