[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 10 09:39:14 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. Due to
the effect of the coronal hole the solar wind speed still
remained enhanced between 600 and 670 km/s for most part
of the UTday today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to moderate
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value throughout
the UTday. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 6 22222221
Learmonth 8 22322222
Culgoora 7 22322221
Camden 5 20022222
Canberra 9 32332221
Hobart 9 32332211
Casey(Ant) 13 33332-33
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20 4542 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun 7 Quiet
12 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Despite the solar wind speed consistently
remaining between 600 to 650 km/s the rise in the
geomagnetic activity level, due to the currently
going on coronal hole effect, has been less than
what was anticipated during the last few days. The
solar wind speed is still high around 620 km/s. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to continue to remain
at quiet to unsettled levels on 10 June and then decline
to mostly quiet levels on 11 and 12 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
may be observed at high latitude locations on 10 June. HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in most
other locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 17 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 19 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 19 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with some possibility
of minor degradations in southern regions on 10 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 643 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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