[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jul             22 Jul             23 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: A partial halo CME associated with a disappearing solar 
filament was observed at 13:45UT on 20 July. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000010
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Learmonth            0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11000010
      Camden               4   12111221
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               0   00000000
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jul     5    Quiet 
22 Jul     5    Quiet 
23 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The CME observed on 20 July may have a glancing impact 
on the Earth during 24-25 July and produce mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jul    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in 
most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 285 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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