[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12112011
      Darwin               4   12212011
      Learmonth            3   11122010
      Culgoora             3   12112011
      Camden               3   11112111
      Canberra             2   11112000
      Hobart               2   11112010
      Casey(Ant)           6   23222111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   1102 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul     7    Quiet 
17 Jul     6    Quiet 
18 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    25    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    73000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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