[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 11 09:46:05 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
no active regions currently on disc. Solar wind velocity declined 
from 420km/s to be 360km/s at the time of this report. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between 
+/-5nT, with notable southward periods between 1100UT and 2000UT. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22122321
      Darwin               7   22222321
      Learmonth            8   22122331
      Culgoora             7   22122321
      Camden               9   32122332
      Canberra             7   22122321
      Hobart               6   21112321
      Casey(Ant)           9   33222321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1000 0114     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
13 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours. The shock arrival that occured at 2050UT on 
09Jul did not result in Active conditions, being only a glancing 
blow from the 06Jul partial halo CME. Mostly Unsettled conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days with possible Active periods 
on 12Jul due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar 
wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor     
12 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor     
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Some depressed periods observed for low latitudes over 
the last 24 hours, with mostly normal conditions for mid latitudes. 
Notable periods of poor ionospheric support for high latitudes. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days whilist Unsettled 
geomagnetic activity continues. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Jul    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ 
regions with some depressed periods during local day for Northern 
Aus/Equatorial regions. Disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days 
due to elevated geomagnetic actvity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    50000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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