[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity should remain at low levels next three 
days. Solar wind speed declined slowly over the UT day as the 
currently geoeffective coronal hole rotates towards the west 
limb. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223211
      Darwin               6   22213211
      Learmonth            6   21223220
      Culgoora             6   22223111
      Camden               9   32213223
      Canberra             7   22224110
      Hobart               7   21224111
      Casey(Ant)          12   33323--2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   3233 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul     5    Quiet 
02 Jul     5    Quiet 
03 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is in slow decline. Active to minor 
storm conditions were observed at high latitudes for the first 
few hours of the UT day. A sustained period of mildly southward 
Bz during the mid part of the UT day resulted an interval of 
unsettled conditions at mid latitudes. Otherwise geomagnetic 
conditions were generally quiet. Expect continuing quiet conditions 
days one and two. Chance of active periods day three due to a 
recurrent coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next three 
days. Possible periods of disturbance at high latitudes day three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jun    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by up to 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Jul    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Evening and night time spread-F observed S Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions. Mild daytime/evening depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the 
Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. Possible disturbances 
Antarctic region day three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   197000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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