[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 25 10:13:58 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Active region 848 produced a number of B-class and one
minor C-class flare over the UT day. Solar wind speed declined
steadily from 600 to 450 km/s over the UT day as the currently
geoeffective coronal hole rotates towards the west solar limb.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 848.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 33322102
Darwin 7 23212113
Learmonth 5 22222102
Culgoora - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 5 --311102
Hobart 7 33311102
Casey(Ant) 10 4--32112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 69 (Active)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 1434 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan 6 Quiet
27 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
+/-5nT until 07UT, after which it trended North. Unsettled to
active geomagnetic conditions were observed at high latitudes
only during the first half of the UT day, otherwise conditions
were quiet. Expect continuing quiet conditions at low to mid
latitudes, with the possibility of unsettled intervals at high
latitudes, mainly day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Fair Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally slightly depressed conditions observed at
low to mid latitudes. Periods of high latitude disturbance in
association with elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect variable
low-latitude enhancements/depressions, and generally improving
mid to high latitude conditions next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Widespread variable depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus/S Aus regions. Occasionally intense sporadic-E conditions
observed S Aus region. Spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic
regions. Expect continuing low-latitude variability, and gradually
improving HF conditions S Aus/Antarctic regions as geomagnetic
activity declines.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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