[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 23 10:51:29 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to increase to low to moderate 
levels due to SEC Boulder region number 10848. This region produced 
multiple C-class flares on 22 Jan. It is also expected that the 
Earth will enter a high speed solar wind stream 23 and 24 of 
January due to a coronal hole moving into a geoeffective position. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11223212
      Darwin               7   21113213
      Learmonth            7   21223212
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             5   01123212
      Hobart               7   11233212
      Casey(Ant)          11   2-333312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1211 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan    14    Unsettled to Active 
24 Jan    16    active 
25 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: The Earth is expected to enter a high speed wind stream 
later today 23 January. This may cause minor disturbances in 
the geomagnetic field today and tomorrow. 
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1336UT on 22 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Variable overnight depressions and isolated cases of 
sporadic E observed at low latitudes. Mid to high latitudes mostly 
near normal except for spread F at high latitudes. Expect further 
low latitude variability next two days, with the possibility 
of high latitude disturbances later today (23 January) and tomorrow. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
24 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
25 Jan    18    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Variable night-time depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Conditions mostly near normal S Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions. Expect further low-latitude variability and possible 
disturbances at high latitudes over the next two days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    56900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list