[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Some magnetic 
mixing and surging has been observed in active region 848. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22122222
      Darwin               7   22122223
      Learmonth            7   21122322
      Culgoora             2   1110----
      Camden               7   22------
      Canberra             7   22123222
      Hobart               9   22223322
      Casey(Ant)           9   3--32222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2122 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan     5    Quiet 
22 Jan     5    Quiet 
23 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated unsettled intervals were observed at high latitudes, 
otherwise the geomagnetic field was quiet. Expect continuing 
mostly quiet conditions. A small equatorial coronal hole may 
produce elevated solar wind parameters on day three. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable overnight depressions observed Equatorial region. 
Variable enhancements/depressions observed at mid latitudes. 
Conditions mostly normal at high latitudes. Expect further low 
latitude variability next two days, with the possibility of high 
latitude disturbances day three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jan    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan    15    Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Jan    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Mild depressions observed over the UT day S Aus region. Conditions 
mostly near normal NZ/Antarctic regions. Equatorial spread-F 
observed local evening and night. Isolated sporadic-E observed 
S Aus region local afternoon. Expect further low-latitude variability 
next two days. Possible disturbances at high latitudes day three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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