[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Feb             25 Feb             26 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22220111
      Darwin               4   22210112
      Learmonth            5   22220112
      Culgoora             3   22110011
      Camden               5   12222111
      Canberra             4   12220111
      Hobart               4   12220111
      Casey(Ant)           5   ---31111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb : 
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   4333 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Feb    20    Mostly unsettled with active periods possible. 
25 Feb    16    Mostly unsettled with active periods possible. 
26 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity likely today and tomorrow due to a favourably 
positioned coronal hole. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Feb     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced at times
      at Vanimo. Near predicted values at Port Moresby. Near
      predicted values to 30% depressed 00-04, 13, 14 UT at
      Niue. Sporadic E observed 18-21 UT at Vanimo and
      Niue.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed from
      02-05 UT at Darwin and Townsville. Near predicted
      values at other stations. Sporadic E observed
      at times throughout the 24 hours.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
      observed at Mundaring 14-18 UT and at Hobart 01-09 UT.
      Sporadic E observed during night hours. Spread R
      observed at Hobart 10-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Feb     5    Depressions to 30% at times at higher latitudes. 
                Near predicted monthly values generally at low 
                and mid latitudes. 
25 Feb     5    Depressions to 30% at times at higher latitudes. 
                Near predicted monthly values generally at low 
                and mid latitudes. 
26 Feb    16    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 614 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   199000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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