[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 22 10:07:44 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Mildly elevated solar wind speed due to coronal 
hole, with a declining trend. No flares observed. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   22344322
      Darwin              12   22333323
      Learmonth           13   22244322
      Culgoora            11   22333322
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra            14   22344322
      Hobart              13   22334332
      Casey(Ant)          21   34444333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : 
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             20   2234 4622     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb    22    active 
23 Feb    16    active 
24 Feb    17    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 19 February 
and is current for interval 22 February only. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Feb    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
23 Feb    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
24 Feb    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Mild depression possible next few days southern Aus/NZ 
region only. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list