[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112112
      Darwin               4   12111112
      Learmonth            4   12012112
      Culgoora             3   12102011
      Camden               4   121-----
      Canberra             2   02102001
      Hobart               2   02112001
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1320 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 



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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Feb    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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