[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind speed first gradually increased 
from 320 to 360 km/s by 1000UT and then decreased to 320 
by the time of this report. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remained slightly 
positive for most part of the UTday today. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211121
      Darwin               5   22111122
      Learmonth            4   22211111
      Culgoora             7   122---31
      Camden               3   12111111
      Canberra             4   -2111211
      Hobart               4   12212111
      Casey(Ant)          11   34-32121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb : 
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   1422 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb     5    Quiet 
09 Feb     5    Quiet 
10 Feb     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels 
today. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next 
three days with some possibility of isolated unsettled 
periods on 10 February. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days as no significant 
rise in geomagnetic activity is expected during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Feb    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb    22    near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb    22    near predicted monthly values 
10 Feb    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
almost all over Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    36500 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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