[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 1 10:35:43 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with no flare activity and the GOES satellite background x-ray
flux level falling below 10e-8 W/m^2. The solar wind velocity
continued to decrease from 320km/s at 0000UT to be 300km/s at
the time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field, Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at low levels
for the next 24-48 hours as there are no active regions on
disc or coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12112211
Darwin 4 11112202
Learmonth 3 20012201
Culgoora 2 11101101
Camden 4 11112112
Canberra 6 23102122
Hobart 3 12101201
Casey(Ant) 7 23311211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 1000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 7 Quiet
02 Feb 7 Quiet
03 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions where observed over the
last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain unchanged while
solar wind parameters reside at low levels with the abscence of
any active regions on disc or coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor disturbed periods observed for low latitudes over
the last 24 hours, and mostly good HF propagation conditions
for mid to high latitudes. Generally good HF conditions expected
for all latitudes over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 30 near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 30 near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed for all regions over
the last 24 hours - with some enhancements observed during local
night for Equatorial/Northern Aus regions. Mostly normal HF
conditions for Southern Aus/NZ regions with some sporadic E
observed during local evenings/night. Good conditions are
expected for the next 2 days over all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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