[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 25 10:23:46 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar background x-ray flux remains at very low levels. 
Solar wind speed remains elevated at 550-650 km/s. The current 
coronal hole wind stream should decline over the next two days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22323322
      Darwin               8   21223322
      Townsville          11   22323332
      Learmonth           12   22334322
      Camden               8   22223222
      Canberra             9   22323222
      Hobart               8   22223222
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--43333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Camden              92   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              75   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   2232 3442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Dec     5    Quiet 
27 Dec     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain elevated as there was no 
significant change to the present coronal hole wind stream over 
the UT day. Mostly unsettled conditions observed at low to mid 
latitudes. Active conditions observed at high latitudes with 
occasional minor storm periods. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions 
on day one of the forecast period as solar wind parameters start 
to decline. Conditions should become generally quiet by day two. 
Recurrence suggests the possibility of elevated geomagnetic activity 
on day three, but this is unsupported by current LASCO EIT imagery. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
26 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Localised variable HF conditions observed at low to 
mid latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance at all latitudes. 
Expect continuing variable conditions especially at low latitudes. 
General improvement at mid to high latitudes days two and three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Dec    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec    -5    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
26 Dec    -5    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
27 Dec    -5    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Periods of widespread, persistent and intense sporadic-E 
Equatorial/Aus regions mainly after local dawn. Weak ionospheric 
support local day/evening especially at mid Aus and S Ocean latitudes.
Periods of disturbance Antarctic region in association with elevated 
geomagnetic activity. Expect similar conditions days one to two. 
Localised daytime enhancements/nightime depressions possible 
Equatorial/N Aus regions. General improvement anticipated at 
higher latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 613 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   138000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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