[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 23 10:05:38 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar background x-ray flux remains at very low levels
and there are no sunspot regions on the visible solar disk.Solar
wind speed remained steady at 600-650 km/s over the UT day. Solar
wind parameters are expected to remain elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream for the next one to two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 13 33342322
Darwin 12 32342322
Townsville 15 33343332
Learmonth 19 33353432
Camden 12 23342322
Canberra 12 23342322
Hobart 12 23342322
Casey(Ant) 23 4-543333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Camden 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 4343 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 12 Unsettled
24 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled conditions observed at low to mid latitudes.
An isolated active interval was observed around 10UT. Active
conditions observed at high latitudes with occasional minor to
major storm periods. Expect similar conditions day one of the
forecast period as solar wind parameters remain elevated due
to a coronal hole wind stream. Conditions should decline to generally
unsettled day two, tending to quiet day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Highly variable HF conditions observed at low to mid
latitudes, with general daytime enhancements and nightime depressions.
Isolated periods of disturbance at all latitudes. Expect continuing
variable conditions especially at low latitudes days one and
two. General improvement at mid to high latitudes days two and
three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Dec -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Dec 0 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Periods of persistent and intense sporadic-E
Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions after local dawn. Weak ionospheric
support local day/evening especially at mid Aus and S Ocean
latitudes. Extended periods of disturbance Antarctic region in
association with elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect similar
conditions days one to two. General improvement anticipated at
higher latitudes days two to three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 691 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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