[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 18 10:31:00 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Low to moderate Very low
Fadeouts Probable Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low throughout the UT day with
a long duration C-class flare peaking at 1711 UT. The solar wind
speed declined throughout the day from 650 km/s to 480 km/s at
the time of this report as the effects of the recent CME glancing
blow subside. Bz, the z component of the IMF, remained very close
to zero throughout the UT day causing the geomagnetic effects
of the recent CME impact to be low. A recurring coronal hole
region is expected to move into a geoeffective position in 24
- 48 hours. Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high
over the next 24 hours with Region 930 still having a significant
chance of producing further M and X class flares. The region
will have moved to the far-side of the solar disk by 19 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 32211121
Darwin 4 22111121
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 7 32211222
Camden 5 32211111
Canberra 4 22211111
Hobart 5 32211111
Casey(Ant) 13 44321232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Camden 75 (Active)
Canberra 81 (Minor storm)
Hobart 142 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3411 0243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 10 Quiet to unsettled
19 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
20 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 16 December
and is current for interval 17-19 December. Geomagnetic activity
has been Unsettled over the last 24 hours. The geomagnetic effects
of the glancing blow CME associated with the 14 December X1.6
flare have dissipated. A reccurring coronal hole region is expected
to move into a geoeffective position over the next 24 to 48 hours
days resulting in further geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF Propogation conditions returned to slightly below
normal levels for the UT day. Ionospheric support was still weak,
however. Strong sporadic E was observed at low latitudes and
weak sporadic E at mid latitudes especially early in the UT day,
degrading communications. Expect propagation conditions to continue
to improve over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Dec 0 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions returned to normal levels in
Northern Australian/Pacific regions and to slightly below normal
levels in other Australasian regions for the UT day. Ionospheric
support was still weak, however. Strong sporadic E was observed
in Northern Australian/Pacific regions and weak sporadic E in
middle and Southern Australian regions especially early in the UT
day, degrading communications. Expect propagation conditions to
continue to improve over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 634 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 50800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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