[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 15 10:52:48 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has remained high over the last 24 hours
with Region 930 producing another X class flare (X1.6) at
2226 UT and C class flares at 1156 UT and 1636 UT (C1.0 and C1.2
respectively). A type II radio sweep was associated with the
X class flare beginning at 2210 UT. This indicates that a CME
was probably emitted with the flare with a high chance that it
is earthward bound. The shock speed has been estimated as
1500 +/- 200 km/s. LASCO images were not available to confirm
a CME at the time of this report. The frontside halo CME associated
with the December 13 X3.4 flare impacted the earth at around
14UT. A sudden impulse was observed in earth based magnetometers
at 1416 UT of around 100 nT. A sudden impulse in the solar wind
was also observed at around 14 UT, the solar wind speed jumping
from 600 km/s to around 950 km/s. At the time of this report
solar wind speed is 850 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has
fluctuated between +/- 15 nT since 14 UT and is - 15nT at the
time of this report. Solar activity is expected to be high over
the next few days with Region 930 having a good chance of producing
further M and X class flares. A minor proton event may follow
over the next 24 - 48 hours with the occurrence of the latest X class
flare. The proton event associated with the X-class flare of
December 13 is still in progress.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1351UT on 14
Dec.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 930.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 28 22225546
Darwin 28 22125546
Townsville 32 22226546
Learmonth 35 22226556
Camden 27 22225536
Canberra 24 22225545
Hobart 28 22225546
Casey(Ant) 59 4--35756
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Camden 89 (Minor storm)
Canberra 99 (Minor storm)
Hobart 101 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 70
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3300 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 100 Major to Severe storm levels
16 Dec 50 Minor to Major storm levels
17 Dec 16 Unsettled to Active conditions
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 13 December
and is current for interval 14-16 December. Minor to Major storm
level geomagnetic activity has been observed over the last 24
hours. With the impact on the earth at around 14 UT of the CME
associated with the X class flare of December 13, geomagnetic
activity increased abruptly to minor storm levels. A sudden impulse
was observed in earth based magnetometers of around 100 nT at
around 14 UT signalling the onset of the current geomagnetic disturbance.
At the time of this report conditions have intensified to major
storm levels. Expect geomagnetic storm conditions to persist
over the next 24 - 48 hours.
A weak (46nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1414UT on 14 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 12 2006 0305UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
16 Dec Fair Fair Poor
17 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Propogation conditions throughout the UT day were normal
at low and mid latitudes until around 14 UT. Conditions at high
latitudes have remained depressed due to the effects of the current
proton event (PCA). A short wave fadeout occurred between 2216
UT and 2330 UT in all Australasian regions but particularly in
eastern Australian regions and New Zealand due to a X1.6 flare
which occurred at 2216 UT. A complete HF fadeout was observed
in ionograms over eastern Australasian regions betwen 2216UT
and 2330UT. Isolated cases of sporadic E were observed at all
latitudes degrading HF communications between 4 UT and 20 UT.
With the arrival of a CME at around 14 UT and the onset of a
minor ionospheric storm, HF propogation conditions have shown
minor depressions. Conditions are expected to degrade further
as the current geomagnetic disturbance intensifies. Major depressions
are expected particurly during local night time hours. Ionospheric
support is expected to return to normal in approximately 72 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec -40 about 40% below predicted monthly values
16 Dec -20 about 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Dec -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 14 December
and is current for interval 14-15 December (SWFs) . HF conditions
and MUFS were normal throughout the UT day at low and mid latitudes
until around 14 UT. Ionospheric support at high latitudes has
remained very poor due to the effects of the current proton event
(PCA). A short wave fadeout occurred between 2216 UT and 2330UT
in all Australasian regions but particularly in eastern Australian
regions and New Zealand due to a X1.6 flare which occurred at
2216 UT. A complete HF fadeout was observed in ionograms over
eastern Australasian regions betwen 2216UT and 2330UT. Isolated
cases of sporadic E were observed over all Australasian regions
degrading HF communications between 4 UT and 20 UT. With the
arrival of a CME at around 14 UT and the onset of a minor ionospheric
storm, MUFS across all Australasian regions have shown minor
depressions. MUFS in all regions are expected to experience further
depressions as the current geomagnetic disturbance intensifies.
Major depressions are expected particurly during local night
time hours. MUFS are expected to return to normal in approximately
72 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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