[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 13 10:53:41 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Dec             14 Dec             15 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
Region 930 producing only B class flares. Solar wind speed remains 
elevated and is currently ~650km/s, having peaked at just over 
750km/s during the UT day. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT over
the UT day, with a sustained southward period between 0200UT and
0600UT of -6nT. The >10MeV proton event finished at 0900UT. Solar
activity is expected to be low over the next few days. Region 930
has increased slightly in size over the last 2 days and still has 
the chance of producing an isolated M-class flare. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 12 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   33434433
      Darwin              15   33334323
      Townsville          17   23334433
      Learmonth           25   44345433
      Camden              18   33434432
      Canberra            19   33434433
      Hobart              20   34434432
      Casey(Ant)          28   -4-54443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Camden              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   3431 1125     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
14 Dec    12    Unsettled 
15 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active geomagnetic activity levels observed 
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remains elevated with 
a notable southward period for Bz between 0200UT and 0600UT. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled for the 
next 24 hours with possible Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions for 14Dec and 15Dec. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : Began at 1625UT 06/12, Ended at 1135UT 12/12
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Enhancements and otherwise normal HF conditions observed 
for low to mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. High latitudes 
experienced poor HF conditions due to PCA effects as the >10MeV 
proton event that finished at 0900UT/12. Improving conditions 
expected for high latitudes over the next 24 hours. Normal HF 
conditions expected for low to mid latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Dec    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhancements during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Dec    20    near predicted monthly values 
14 Dec    20    near predicted monthly values 
15 Dec    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced conditions observed for local evenings over 
both Northern Aus/Equatorial and Southern Aus/NZ regions, with 
otherwise normal HF conditions. Poor ionospheric support for 
Antarctic regions due to PCA effects. Improving conditions are 
expected over the next 24 hours for Antarctic regions with mostly 
normal conditions for all other regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 642 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   329000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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