[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 6 10:41:50 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0803UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X9.1 1035UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity unexpectedly reached to high levels
today. Region 930(S07E72) produced several C-class flares,
an M1.8(0803UT) flare and an X9 (1035UT) flare. The X-flare
was associated with a Type II and a Type IV radio sweep. A
CME may have been associated with this flare, but due to the
unavailability of LASCO images it could not be confirmed.
But even if a CME did erupt with this flare, it is not likely
to be geoeffective due to its location. The solar wind speed
remained around 300 km/s by 1500UT today and then showed a
gradual rise to 400 km/s by the time of this report. This
strengthening in the solar wind seems to have been caused
by a slightly earlier than expected arrival of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
close to the normal value by around 1500UT and then showed
minor to moderate (upto +/-7nT) fluctuations during the rest
of the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11121312
Darwin 4 11121212
Townsville 7 22122322
Learmonth 7 01221323
Culgoora - --------
Camden 4 10011312
Canberra 4 10021312
Hobart 3 10021212
Casey(Ant) 11 23332223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 16 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
07 Dec 27 Active to minor storm
08 Dec 23 Mostly active, minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 4 December
and is current for interval 5-7 December. The effect of a
coronal hole may raise the geomagentic activity to active
levels with possibility of minor storm periods for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Dec Normal-fair Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor to moderate degradations
at low and mid latitudes for the next three days due to an
expected rise in geomagnetic activity during this period. Minor
to significant degradation in HF conditions and depressions in
MUFs may be observed at high latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
08 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor to moderate degradations
for the next three days across Aus/NZ regions. The effect may
be more pronounced in the Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 28500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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