[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 14 09:28:24 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low to very low levels. Solar wind speed
increased after 09UT, indicating the onset of a coronal hole
wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 13234323
Darwin 13 23234323
Learmonth 14 13235322
Culgoora 13 23234323
Camden 12 13234322
Canberra 13 13234323
Hobart 13 13244312
Casey(Ant) 15 24334223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 20 Active
15 Apr 25 Active
16 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 11 April and
is current for interval 15-16 April. Solar wind speed increased
after 09UT indicting the onset of the anticipated coronal hole
wind stream. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated mildly about neutral, resulting in a brief unsettled
to active interval about 13UT. After this, Bz maintained a moderate
northward polarity, and the geomagentic field returned to quiet
levels. Bz has trended towards neutral late in the UT day. If
the trend continues with Bz turning southward, active to minor
storm periods can be expected. Solar wind parameters will remain
elevated at least for days one and two.
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1459UT on 13 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed over the UT day, with
a brief period of disturbance at high latitudes. Expect high
latitude degradations next three days in association with elevated
geomagnetic activity
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day,
Brief period of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during
local night hours 14-16 Apr, southern Aus/NZ region. Significant
degradations possible Antarctic region 14-17 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 57500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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