[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 1 10:32:20 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. 
GOES spacecraft shows serveral B-class flares over the last 24 
hours most likely caused by region 10865. There is a possibility 
this region could produce C-class x-ray flares over the next 
2-3 days, which would have a minimal terrestrial effect. The ACE 
spacecraft shows the solar wind velocity has remained steady 
between 350 and 380 km/s and is presently 360km/s. Also, that
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained 
within +/- 5nT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21122121
      Darwin               5   21222121
      Learmonth            5   11113220
      Culgoora             3   11122011
      Camden               5   21122121
      Canberra             4   21122120
      Hobart               5   21123120
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1100 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr     6    Quiet 
02 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions should prevail today with a 
possibility of unsettled conditions to develope during the next 
2 days due to a weak coronal hole. 

AUTOMATED GEOMAGNETIC STORM DURATION FORECAST
Dst-index storm peak of  -132 observed at  31 03 06 at 1845 UT
Geomagnetic storm end expected at: NA
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes 
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 2 days, with possible high latitude disturbances. Notable 
exceptions include isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes 
in the late evening and earily night hours and isolated cases 
of spread F in the late night earily morning hours at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    24    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Apr    24    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Apr    24    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected today. Noted isolated 
cases of sporadic E in late evening and earily night hours at 
low latitudes, as well as isolated cases of spread F in late 
night to earily morning hours at high latitudes. Expect similar 
conditions to prevail over the next 2-3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    42600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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