[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 05

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 26 09:55:34 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 2112
      Darwin               4   1112 2111
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             3   1112 2102
      Hobart               4   1112 2112
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1110 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Sep    16    active 
28 Sep    22    active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Sep    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep    35    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    23100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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