[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 15 10:04:01 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1 13/2303UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  X1.8 13/2322UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  M4.6    1039UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2243 4322
      Learmonth           16   2233 5322
      Culgoora            15   2243 4322
      Canberra            20   2254 4332
      Hobart              15   2244 3322
      Casey(Ant)          21   4433 43-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              53   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             51   6566 5344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep    73    Storm levels 
16 Sep    29    active 
17 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 14 September 
and is current for interval 15-17 September. Strongly disturbed 
geomagnetic conditions expected during the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal-Fair    Fair           Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 14 09 2005 0100UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal-Poor    Poor           Poor(PCA)
16 Sep      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Sep    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep     0    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
16 Sep    18    near predicted monthly values 
17 Sep    22    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 12 September 
and is current for interval 13-15 September (SWFs) . HF conditions 
may show mild to significant degradations in Aus/NZ regions, 
especially in the southern regions on 15 September. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 714 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    90400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list