[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 13 09:51:19 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0702UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M4.5 0849UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M6.1 0904UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 2009UT observed lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 12 September as region
808(S11E16) produced four M and some C-class flares. The
timings of the major flares are as follows: M1.5(0505UT),
M1.3(0701UT), M6.1(0903UT) and M1.5(2009UT). A shock was
detected in the solar wind stream around 0600UT. The arrival
of this anticipated shock raised the solar wind speed from
700 to 1000 km/s. The solar wind speed then gradually
decreased to 700 km/s by the time of this report. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) also showed minor to moderate fluctuations on the arrival
of this shock. Bz reamained mostly slightly negative before
and a few hours after this shock arrived. Due to particle
contamination, high proton flux and unavailability of some
LASCO images, it is not clear at this stage if any more
significant CMEs are heading towards the earth. Region 808
has shown decay in area during the last 24 hours, but it
still remains magentically complex and capable of producing
major flares during the next few days. The >10MeV proton
event that started at 0215UT/08 September is weakeing now
and it is very close to the event threshold now. This proton
event may end in the next few hours. Solar activity is
expected to remain at moderate to high levels during the
next few days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 12/0540UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Unsettled to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 49 4366 5554
Learmonth 56 3366 6655
Culgoora 43 3365 5555
Canberra 58 4376 5554
Hobart 51 4366 4564
Casey(Ant) 46 4465 5--4
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 177 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 45
Planetary 60
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 53
Planetary 105 5797 6554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 35 Active to major storm.
14 Sep 22 Unsettled to minor storm.
15 Sep 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 12 September
and is current for interval 13-14 September. Geomagnetic
activity may rise from active to major storm levels on
13 September due a to strong solar wind stream and expected
more transient flow. The effect of a recurrent coronal hole
is also expected to strengthen the solar wind stream during
the next three days. The geomagnetic activity may gradually
decline on 14 and 15 September if no further major activity
happens on region 808.
A weak (24nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1436UT on 12 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 09 2005 0235UT and is
in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
14 Sep Normal Normal Fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: More shortwave fadeouts may be observed during
the next few days. HF conditions are expected to show
moderate to strong degradations on high latitudes on
13 and 14 September. Some degradations may also be observed
on some mid latitude locations during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to
15%
14 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5%
15 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions may show mild to moderate degradations
in Aus/NZ regions, especially in the southern regions on
13 September and at times on 14 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.4E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 820 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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