[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 26 09:47:35 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity. Similar conditions are expected over the next
2 days, as there are no regions of considerable size or magnetic
complexity currently on disc. The solar wind velocity climbed
from 350km/s at 0000UT to be slightly elevated at 450km/s at
the time of this report. This increase in solar wind velocity
is due to coronal hole effects which are expected to continue
for the next 24 hours. The north south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was predominently southward
for the entire UT day, with a maximum of -10nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 3334 2323
Darwin 11 3323 2322
Learmonth 16 4334 2323
Culgoora 14 3334 2323
Canberra 14 3334 2323
Hobart 13 2334 2323
Casey(Ant) 17 3533 2323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic activity was observed over
the last 24 hours due to the slight increase in solar wind stream
parameters from the recent geoeffective coronal hole. Quiet to
Unsettled conditions are expected over the next 2 days with
possible Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions for HF Propagation where observed
for mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. Low and High latitudes
experienced notable depressions periods towards the end of the
UT day. Degraded conditions are epxected for all regions over
the next 24 hours due to the current increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Oct 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notable dpepressions observed for Northern Aust. and
Equatorial locations during local night, otherwise mostly normal
HF conditions for all other regions. Depressed conditions possible
over all regions for the next 24 hours due to the current increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 50200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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