[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 22 09:40:27 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only a minor B-class event. These conditions are expected
to continue for the next few days with no regions of considerable
size or magnetic complexity currently on disc. The equatorial
positioned coronal hole has moved into a geoeffecive position.
The solar wind velocity was steady at 310km/s for most of the
UT day, until 1900UT whereupon it began to rise to be 360km/s
at the time of this report. The north south component of the
interpanetary magnetic field (Bz) was predominently neutral for
UT day, however turning southward to -10nT between 2100UT and
2300UT, and then reverting back to neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 1110 0001
Darwin 1 1110 0012
Learmonth - ---- ----
Culgoora 1 1110 0002
Canberra 0 0100 0001
Hobart 0 1100 0001
Casey(Ant) 5 2322 0001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1021 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
24 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the next
24 hours but with an anticipated increase to Unsettled and possible
Active conditions between 22Oct-24Oct due to anticipated elevated
solar wind stream parameters from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions for HF Propagation are expected
for the next 24 hrs over all latitudes. Disturbed conditions
are expected on 23Oct and 24Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
23 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Oct 15 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial locations experienced mildly depressed periods
during local day. Normal HF conditions observed for Southern
Aust. and NZ regions over the last 24 hours, with similar conditions
expected for all regions over the next 24-36 hours. Disturbed
periods are expected after this time frame due to coronal hole
effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 21400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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