[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Very low           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the day with only a 
B class flare from AR815. Overall solar activity is expected 
to continue at low levels over the next 24 hours, with further 
minor flaring possible from region 815. An active region can 
be seem emerging on the limb in SOHO spacecraft images and recurrence 
suggests activity may increase in 48 hours. The solar wind velocity 
has risen slightly from 320 to 380 km/sec. IMF Bz has been southwards 
for the day, favouring merging with the geomagnetic field, except 
for brief northward excursions at 02 and 20UT. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1121 2222
      Darwin               3   1111 211-
      Learmonth            4   1111 2222
      Culgoora             5   1221 2222
      Canberra             5   1221 2222
      Hobart               5   1122 2222
      Casey(Ant)           8   2-32 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0100 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct     6    Quiet 
18 Oct     6    Quiet 
19 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet at low 
and mid latitudes and possibly unsettled at high latitudes due 
to the extended period of IMF Bz southwards and merging with 
the geomagnetic field. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Propagation is expected to be normal in the next 24 
hrs. Higher latitudes may experience degraded conditions due 
to enhanced polar cap covection from geomagnetic merging with 
the IMF. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Oct    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct    29    near predicted monthly values 
18 Oct    27    near predicted monthly values 
19 Oct    32    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Equatorial ionosphere is showing depression at night 
although sub-equatorial (northern Australia) is showing slight 
enhancement at night. Mid-latitudes appear normal. High latitudes 
are disturbed moderatley by enhanced polar cap convective flows 
due to geomagnetic merging with the solar magnetic field (IMF). 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 308 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    45500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"