[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 3 09:27:46 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar background X-ray flux remains at nominal levels.
Solar wind speed has declined steadily over the UT day. Old active
region 808, which produced several major flares on its last rotation,
is due for return on Oct 04. Backside/East limb activity has
so far been minimal.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 2333 2212
Darwin 7 2322 2212
Learmonth 10 2233 3302
Culgoora 8 2233 2212
Canberra 11 2343 2212
Hobart 10 2243 2212
Casey(Ant) 13 2433 2322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3433 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily from 520 to 460 km/s
over the UT day. Periods of sustained southward IMF Bz in the
first half of the UT day led to intervals of active geomagnetic
conditions at high latitudes, extending briefly to mid latitudes.
Otherwise conditions were generally quiet. With mildly elevated
solar wind velocity, there is a chance of isolated active periods
if Bz polarity turns southward. Expect generally quiet conditions
days two and three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime-evening depressions observed at low latitudes,
recovering post-dawn. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next
three days. Possible mild depressions at low latitudes, mainly
daytime and evening. Possible periods of degradation at high
latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Variable depressions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 22
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 15 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 15 Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime/evening depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions, extending at times to mid Aus latitudes. Isolated
periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic regions.
Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Isolated
disturbances possible Antarctic region in association with geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list