[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 1 09:33:57 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               75/13
COMMENT: Solar background X-ray flux remains at nominal levels. 
Solar wind speed trended upwards after 18UT and is slightly elevated 
at around 500 km/s at the time of report issue. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 30 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2222 4322
      Darwin              10   2221 4323
      Learmonth           10   2122 4322
      Culgoora            10   2122 4322
      Canberra            10   1123 4312
      Hobart               8   1113 4211
      Casey(Ant)           9   2332 3211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2112 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct    12    Unsettled 
02 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: An interval of mildy negative Bz polarity in the solar 
wind was observed on the ACE satellite platform from 1030 to 
1300UT. A subsequent interval of active geomagnetic conditions 
was observed from 1330 to 1430UT. Otherwise geomagnetic conditions 
were quiet. An upward trend in solar wind velocity was observed 
late in the UT day. With mildly elevated solar wind velocity, 
there is a chance of isolated active periods if Bz polarity turns 
southward. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime-evening depressions observed at low latitudes, 
recovering post-dawn. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next 
three days. Possible mild depressions at low latitudes, mainly 
daytime and evening. Possible periods of degradation at high 
latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Sep    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct    15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild daytime/evening depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Isolated periods of spread-F conditions observed 
S Aus regions. Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus 
regions. Isolated disturbances possible Antarctic region in association 
with geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    31400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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