[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 30 10:37:03 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 2121 0224
Darwin 4 2111 0224
Learmonth 4 2111 0223
Culgoora 3 1110 0223
Canberra 4 1110 0233
Hobart 3 1120 0224
Casey(Ant) 10 2332 2235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 0122 4223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 12 Quiet to unsettled. Active periods later in the
day.
01 Dec 17 Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods.
Probability of minor storm levels at higher latitudes.
02 Dec 17 Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods.
Probability of minor storm levels at higher latitudes.
COMMENT: Activity is likely to increase in the second half of
30 Nov due to recurrent coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Fair
01 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Ionosphere likely to become depressed later on 30 Nov,
particularly at higher latitudes. Lower frequencies likely to
be required on HF sky wave circuits until 3 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values, depressions to 30%
07-12 UT. Sporadic E observed at Vanimo 00, 12, 17-19
UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic observed at
Darwin 07-08, 15 UT and Townsville 00-01 UT. Spread F
observed at Niue 13-15 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed
during the day and evening at all stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
Macquarie Island 08, 09, 13, 14 UT, Mawson 14, 15 and
20 UT and Casey 17-21 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values to 40% depressed,
particularly at mid and higher latitudes.
02 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values to 40% depressed,
particularly at mid and higher latitudes.
COMMENT: Depressions likely later on 30 Nov and remainder of
forecast period. Lower latitude sky wave circuits unlikely to
be greatly affected. Spread F may degrade circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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