[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 21 10:38:44 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Two minor C-class flares were observed today, both originating
from AR822. Solar radio noise is still evident, but has declined
significantly from the levels of the previous few days. AR822
has declined in area, but still has potential for C- to M-class
flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 2343 1222
Darwin 9 2333 1222
Learmonth - ---- ----
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 11 2343 1212
Hobart 12 1344 1211
Casey(Ant) 15 3443 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 1000 1443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined slowly over the UT day. There
was a period of sustained southward bias in the IMF Bz component
during the mid-part of the UT day. Periods of active geomagnetic
conditions were observed at mid to high latitudes during this
interval. Otherwise conditions were quiet to unsettled. Expect
generally quiet to unsettled conditions next three days, with
the chance of isolated active periods at mid to high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed at low latitudes over
the UT day. Mild daytime depressions observed at some mid latitudes.
Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal. Expect mostly normal conditions
next three days. Variable conditions possible at low latitudes.
Possible minor disturbances at high latitudes in association
with geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Variable localised depressions.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed Equatorial/PNG regions
with occasionally deep night-time depressions. Normal to slightly
enhanced conditions S Aus/Antarctic region. Daytime sporadic-E
conditions observed at some stations. Solar radio noise again
observed during sunlight hours on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph
and IPS Antarctic Riometer network, but intensity has declined
significantly from the levels of previous days. Expect similar
HF conditions next three days with low latitude variability and
declining solar radio noise emissions. Possible minor disturbances
Antarctic region on days one and two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 64200 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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