[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 19 10:35:13 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0034UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: The trailing spot region of AR822 produced a medium-duration
M1 level flare at 0030UT. No CME resulting from this event was
observed in LASCO C3 imagery. Otherwise flare activity was limited
to B- and minor C-class events. A considerable number broadband
solar radio noise emissions have been observed over the UT day.
Further C- to M-class activity is possible from AR822.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 2121 2222
Darwin 4 2111 1222
Learmonth 5 2101 1322
Culgoora 3 1111 ----
Canberra 6 1121 2231
Hobart 5 1121 2221
Casey(Ant) 11 2-32 2333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1021 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity commenced an upward tend after 10UT,
followed by a 180 degree change in the Phi component of the solar
wind magnetic field at 14UT. A brief minor storm interval was
observed at polar cusp latitude shortly thereafter. These events
were possibly the signature of the anticipated solar sector boundary
crossing. Otherwise geomagnetic conditions were generally quiet.
Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on day one, similar conditions
on day two with a possible minor disturbance due to the erupting
solar filament of Nov 16. Recurrence suggests an elevated coronal
hole wind stream on days two to three, but this is unsupported
by current solar imagery.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Brief, variable depressions observed overnight and around
local dawn at low latitudes. Otherwise HF conditiions mostly
normal. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days. Possible
minor disturbances at high latitudes in association with geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Brief, variable depressions observed PNG region during
local night and around local dawn. Evening spread-F conditions
observed Antarctic region. Otherwise conditions mostly normal.
Considerable solar radio noise observed during sunlight hours
on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph and IPS Antarctic Riometer
network. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three days with
continuing solar radio noise emissions. Possible minor disturbances
Antarctic region on days one and two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 22000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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