[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 94/39


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   95/41              95/41              95/41  
COMMENT: Active Region 822 remains the only significant feature 
on the visible solar disk. This region produced a long-duration 
C5.9 level flare at 1213UT. An erupting filament was observed 
in the NW quadrant at 1440UT, followed by a slow, low-intensity 
CME. Further C to M-class activity is possible from AR822. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2111 0211
      Darwin               4   2111 1211
      Learmonth            3   1111 0212
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             3   1111 0210
      Hobart               3   1111 0211
      Casey(Ant)           9   3--3 1221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        N/A
           Planetary             N/A                        

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        N/A
           Planetary             N/A  1122 2001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov     6    Quiet 
18 Nov     6    Quiet 
19 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Quiet 
geomagnetic conditions observed at low to mid latitudes, with 
isolated unsettled periods at high latitudes. Expect continuing 
mostly quiet conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Nov     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Slightly below predicted values local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs observed N and S Aus and NZ regions 
during local day, recovering to normal by local night. Equatorial 
region mostly normal with occasional sporadic-E observed. Antarctic 
region mostly normal with occasional spread-F conditions. Expect 
similar conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    84800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"