[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6    0421UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.9    1421UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2323 2112
      Darwin               7   2322 2112
      Learmonth            6   2213 2112
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             8   2323 2112
      Hobart               7   1323 2112
      Casey(Ant)          13   34-3 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   3433 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Nov    11    Unsettled 
17 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Nov    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    92700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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