[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance 
of C-class flares from Boulder region 10820. The coronal hole 
wind stream effects are slowly diminishing, present solar wind 
speed is 550km/s. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2122 2221
      Darwin               5   2121 2122
      Learmonth            6   -222 2211
      Culgoora             5   2121 2222
      Canberra             5   2121 2221
      Hobart               5   2121 2121
      Casey(Ant)          11   4--3 1120
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10   3322 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Nov    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Nov    16    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet 
today, 8 November. Expect geomagnetic activity to increase slightly 
in two days due to geoeffective coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: High latitude ionograms showed possible loss of HF communication 
for short periods. Expect near normal HF conditions for this 
time of year and period in the solar cycle. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov    20    near predicted monthly values 
09 Nov    20    near predicted monthly values 
10 Nov    16    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: MUFs should be near predicted monthly values today and 
tomorrow, 8-9 November. However, in two days expect some minor 
degradations due to an active geomagnetic field. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 629 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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